Three White Soldiers Three Black Crows Forex Trading Strategy

The Henry Jackson Initiative by Lady Forester

While reasearching Epstein's known associates, an interesting individual stood out. Lynn Forester de Rothschild, Lady de Rothschild. No intention of this being a Rothschild Conspiracy. If your are uninterested to read the content below, scroll down to Comment to get my summary and take on this information. As always please Fact check this.
(HJI) is a bi-partisan, transatlantic movement of business leaders, senior policy makers and academics focused on promoting a more Inclusive Capitalism. The HJI calls for international collaboration from businesses and other organizations to encourage the widest possible adoption of programs that improve capitalism as a driver of wellbeing for society.
The HJI grew out of the Task Force project For Inclusive Capitalism, which sought solutions to the effects on society and business as a result of the global financial crisis of 2007 – 2008 and the dislocations caused by capitalism’s practice over the past 30 years. The Taskforce, which was co-chaired by Dominic Barton, Global Managing Director, McKinsey & Company, and Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, CEO, El Rothschild, published its inaugural paper Towards a More Inclusive Capitalism in May 2012. The report sets out three pathways for business action that lie at the heart of the HJI’s mandate:
  1. Education for employment: addressing the gap between employer needs and employee skills
  2. Nurture start-ups and SMEs: mentoring small businesses and improving access to credit for them
  3. Reform management and governance for the long term: replacing today’s focus on short term performance
The HJI exists to highlight and support businesses and other organizations working to promote the broadest possible adoption of best practices in these and other areas related to Inclusive Capitalism. The HJI believes there is an urgent and compelling demand for business to act to address the greatest systemic issues facing capitalism today. The HJI also believes that business is best positioned to lead innovations in areas that need them the most.

WHO WAS HENRY JACKSON?

Henry Martin "Scoop" Jackson (May 31, 1912 – September 1, 1983) was an American politician who served as a U.S. Representative (1941–1953) and U.S. Senator (1953–1983) from the state of Washington). A Cold War liberal and anti-Communist Democrat), Jackson supported higher military spending and a hard line against the Soviet Union, while also supporting social welfare programs, civil rights, and labor unions.
Jackson was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom posthumously in 1984; Ronald Reagan called him "one of the greatest lawmakers of our century," and stated:
Scoop Jackson was convinced that there's no place for partisanship in foreign and defense policy. He used to say, 'In matters of national security, the best politics is no politics.' His sense of bipartisanship was not only natural and complete; it was courageous. He wanted to be President, but I think he must have known that his outspoken ideas on the security of the Nation would deprive him of the chance to be his party's nominee in 1972 and '76. Still, he would not cut his convictions to fit the prevailing style. I'm deeply proud, as he would have been, to have Jackson Democrats serve in my administration. I'm proud that some of them have found a home here.

Criticism

Jackson was known as a hawkish Democrat. He was often criticized for his support for the Vietnam War and his close ties to the defense industries of his state. His proposal of Fort Lawton as a site for an anti-ballistic missile system was strongly opposed by local residents, and Jackson was forced to modify his position on the location of the site several times, but continued to support ABM development. American Indian rights activists who protested Jackson's plan to give Fort Lawton to Seattle, instead of returning it to local tribes, staged a sit-in. In the eventual compromise, most of Fort Lawton became Discovery Park), with 20 acres (8.1 ha) leased to United Indians of All Tribes, who opened the Daybreak Star Cultural Center there in 1977.
Opponents derided him as "the Senator from Boeing" and a "whore for Boeing" because of his consistent support for additional military spending on weapons systems and accusations of wrongful contributions from the company; in 1965, 80% of Boeing's contracts were military. Jackson and Magnuson's campaigning for an expensive government supersonic transport plane project eventually failed.
After his death, critics pointed to Jackson's support for Japanese American internment camps during World War II as a reason to protest the placement of his bust at the University of Washington.Jackson was both an enthusiastic defender of the evacuation and a staunch proponent of the campaign to keep the Japanese-Americans from returning to the Pacific Coast after the war.

Jackson Papers controversy

Senator Jackson's documents were donated to the University of Washington shortly after his death in 1983, and have been archived there ever since.When the materials were donated in 1983, university staff removed all information considered classified at the time.Additional materials were added to the collection until 1995.
At some point, library staff discovered a classified document in the collection and sent it to the government for declassification. In response, in the summer of 2004, a man who identified himself as an employee of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) called the University of Washington asking to inspect Senator Jackson's archived documents housed there. He found a document labelled as classified and showed this to a librarian.[48] In February 2005, 22 years after Jackson's death, a five-person team including staff of the CIA, Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, and the Information Security Oversight Office came to library to review all of Jackson's papers to remove anything still considered classified, or reclassified since then. The Department of Energy found nothing of concern, but the CIA blanked lines in about 20 papers and pulled 8 documents out of collection. As of 2018, some files in the collection are available only to those regarded by the library as "serious researchers", who must first sign a release not to divulge some of the information contained in the files.

The Henry Jackson Society

The society was founded on 11 March 2005 by academics and students at Cambridge, including Brendan Simms, Alan Mendoza, Gideon Mailer, James Rogers and Matthew Jamison. It organises meetings with speakers in the House of Commons. The society claims that it advocates an interventionist) foreign-policy that promotes human rights and reduces suffering, by both non-military and military methods, when appropriate.
In 2006, the society worked to raise the profile of the Ahwazi Arabs of Iran, who it claims are currently being oppressed by the Iranian government.
After originating within the University of Cambridge, the organisation is now based in London. In April 2011 the entire staff of another London think-tank, the Centre for Social Cohesion (which has since been dissolved), joined the Henry Jackson Society.
The organisation is a registered charity in England and Wales and earns financial backing from private donations and grant-making organisations which support its work. The income of the society increased significantly from 2009 to 2014, from £98,000 to £1.6 million per year.
In 2017 Hannah Stuart, one of the society's Research Fellows, released Islamist Terrorism: Analysis of Offences and Attacks in the UK (1998–2015), which profiled every individual convicted under terrorism legislation in the UK between those dates with an Islamist connection.

Structure and projects

The Society has produced a breadth of research reports and papers. These have mostly focused on Islamist extremist activity in the UK, crackdowns on human rights and democracy elsewhere, and various facets of foreign policy and defence.Its current workstreams include:
In September 2018, the Society announced the creation of a new Centre for Social and Political Risk. This Centre will "identify, diagnose and propose solutions to threats to governance in liberal Western democracies", focusing on social cohesion and integration; freedom of speech and political correctness; demographic change; and other issues.

Criticism

The think tank has been described by the media as having right-wing and neoconservative leanings, though it positions itself as non-partisan.In 2014, Nafeez Ahmed, an executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development, said that the Henry Jackson Society courts corporate, political power to advance a distinctly illiberal oil and gas agenda in the Middle East.
In 2009 the society became the secretariat of two all-party parliamentary groups (APPGs), for Transatlantic and International Security, chaired by Gisela Stuart, and for Homeland Security, chaired by Bernard Jenkin. A transparency requirement upon non-profit organisations acting as secretariat at that time was that they must reveal, on request, any corporate donors who gave £5,000 or more to the organisation over the past year or cease acting as a secretariat organisation. In 2014, following a query, the society refused to disclose this information and resigned its position as secretariat of the APPGs concerned in order to comply with the Rules. The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, Kathryn Hudson, upheld a complaint against these APPGs on the grounds data had not been provided, but noted the society had already resigned its position and that the consequence of this non-provision therefore "appears to have taken effect" as the Rules intended. The case was therefore closed with no further action taken and the APPGs themselves dissolved with the dissolution of Parliament in March 2015. The APPG Rules were subsequently changed in March 2015 so that only those non-profit organisations providing services to APPGs of more than £12,500 in value needed to declare their corporate donors.
In July 2014 the Henry Jackson Society was sued by Lady de Rothschild over funds of a "caring capitalism" summit. Lady de Rothschild claims that she has financed the summit and that HJS and its executive director Alan Mendoza are holding £137,000 of “surplus funds” from the conference that should be returned to the couple’s investment company EL Rothschild.
Think tank discussions on the Middle East and Islam have led some media organisations to criticise a perceived anti-Muslim agenda. Marko Attila Hoare, a former senior member, cited related reasons for leaving the think tank and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy was urged, in 2015, to sever his links with the society.
According to the report published in 2015, "a right-wing politics is apparent not only in the ideas that the Henry Jackson Society promotes, but also emerges distinctly on examination of its funders."
In 2017, the Henry Jackson Society was accused of running an anti-China propaganda campaign after the Japanese embassy gave them a monthly fee of 10,000 pounds.The campaign was said to be aimed at planting Japan's concerns about China in British newspapers.
Co-founder Matthew Jamison wrote in 2017 that he was ashamed of his involvement, having never imagined the Henry Jackson Society "would become a far-right, deeply anti-Muslim racist [...] propaganda outfit to smear other cultures, religions and ethnic groups." "The HJS for many years has relentlessly demonised Muslims and Islam."
In January 2019, Nikita Malik of the Henry Jackson Society provided The Daily Telegraph with information they claimed showed a Muslim scout leader was linked to Islamic extremists and Holocaust deniers.In January 2020 The Daily Telegraph issued a retraction and formal apology saying that:
"the articles said that Ahammed Hussain had links to extremist Muslim Groups that promoted terrorism and anti-Semitism, and could have suggested that he supported those views and encouraged their dissemination. We now accept that this was wrong and that Mr Hussain has never supported or promoted terrorism, or been anti-Semitic.We acted in good faith on information received but we now accept that the article is defamatory of Mr Hussain and false, and apologise for the distress caused to him in publishing it. We have agreed to pay him damages and costs."
The initial signatories of the statement of principles included:
International patrons included Richard Perle, William Kristol, former CIA Director R. James Woolsey Jr., and former Lithuanian leader Vytautas Landsbergis.

Comments

This has been a rabbit hole and only half the story regarding Lady Forester. Then only link between Lady Forester and Jeffrey Epstein is In 1995, financier Lynn Forester discussed "Jeffrey Epstein and currency stabilization" with Clinton. Epstein, according to his own accounts, was heavily involved in the foreign exchange market and traded large amounts of currency in the unregulated forex market. I will post another story Lady Forester and the coalition for Inclusive Capitalism.

References

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Jackson_Society
https://henryjacksonsociety.org/who-was-henry-jackson/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_M._Jackson
submitted by DeusEx1991 to Epstein [link] [comments]

What factors predict the success of a Steam game? (An analysis)

What factors predict the success of a Steam game?

I've seen quite a few discussions, comments and questions on /gamedev about what determines a game's success. How much does quality matter? Is establishing market awareness before launch the only thing that matters? Does a demo help or hurt? If your game has a poor launch, how likely is it to recover? Is it possible to roughly predict the sales of a game before launch?
In preparation for my game's launch, I spent a lot of time monitoring upcoming releases trying to find the answer to these questions. I compiled a spreadsheet, noted followers, whether it was Early Access or not, and saw how many reviews it received in the first week, month and quarter.
I'm sharing this data now in the hopes that it helps other developers understand and predict their games' sales.
First some notes on the data:
Game Price Launch Discount Week Guess Week actual 3 Month 3 Month/week Followers Early Access Demo Review Score
Pit of Doom 9.99 0 7 27 43 1.592592593 295 Y N 0.8
Citrouille 9.99 0.2 16 8 12 1.5 226 N N
Corspe Party: Book 14.99 0.1 32 40 79 1.975 1015 N N 0.95
Call of Cthulhu 44.99 0 800 875 1595 1.822857143 26600 N N 0.74
On Space 0.99 0.4 0 0 0 4 N N
Orphan 14.99 0 50 0 8 732 N N
Black Bird 19.99 0 20 13 34 2.615384615 227 N N
Gloom 6.99 0 20 8 17 2.125 159 N N
Gilded Rails 5.99 0.35 2 3 7 2.333333333 11 N Y
The Quiet Man 14.99 0.1 120 207 296 1.429951691 5596 N N 0.31
KartKraft 19.99 0.1 150 90 223 2.477777778 7691 Y N 0.84
The Other Half 7.99 0 2 3 27 9 91 N Y 0.86
Parabolus 14.99 0.15 0 0 0 16 N Y
Yet Another Tower Defense 1.99 0.4 20 22 38 1.727272727 396 N N 0.65
Galaxy Squad 9.99 0.25 8 42 5.25 3741 Y N 0.87
Swords and Soldiers 2 14.99 0.1 65 36 63 1.75 1742 N N 0.84
SpitKiss 2.99 0 3 1 2 2 63 N N
Holy Potatoes 14.99 0 24 11 22 2 617 N N 0.7
Kursk 29.99 0.15 90 62 98 1.580645161 2394 N N 0.57
SimpleRockets 2 14.99 0.15 90 142 272 1.915492958 3441 Y N 0.85
Egress 14.99 0.15 160 44 75 1.704545455 7304 Y N 0.67
Kynseed 9.99 0 600 128 237 1.8515625 12984 Y N 0.86
11-11 Memories 29.99 0 30 10 69 6.9 767 N N 0.96
Rage in Peace 12.99 0.1 15 10 42 4.2 377 N N 0.85
One Hour One Life 19.99 0 12 153 708 4.62745098 573 N N 0.81
Optica 9.99 0 0 2 3 1.5 18 N N
Cybarian 5.99 0.15 8 4 18 4.5 225 N N
Zeon 25 3.99 0.3 3 11 12 1.090909091 82 Y N
Of Gods and Men 7.99 0.4 3 10 18 1.8 111 N Y
Welcome to Princeland 4.99 0.1 1 15 55 3.666666667 30 N N 0.85
Zero Caliber VR 24.99 0.1 100 169 420 2.485207101 5569 Y N 0.73
HellSign 14.99 0 100 131 334 2.549618321 3360 Y N 0.85
Thief Simulator 19.99 0.15 400 622 1867 3.001607717 10670 N N 0.81
Last Stanza 7.99 0.1 8 2 4 2 228 N Y
Evil Bank Manager 11.99 0.1 106 460 4.339622642 8147 Y N 0.78
Oppai Puzzle 0.99 0.3 36 93 2.583333333 54 N N 0.92
Hexen Hegemony 9.99 0.15 3 1 5 5 55 Y N
Blokin 2.99 0 0 0 0 0 10 N N
Light Fairytale Ep 1 9.99 0.1 80 23 54 2.347826087 4694 Y N 0.89
The Last Sphinx 2.99 0.1 0 0 1 0 17 N N
Glassteroids 9.99 0.2 0 0 0 0 5 Y N
Hitman 2 59.99 0 2000 2653 3677 1.385978138 52226 N N 0.88
Golf Peaks 4.99 0.1 1 8 25 3.125 46 N N 1
Sipho 13.99 0 24 5 14 2.8 665 Y N
Distraint 2 8.99 0.1 40 104 321 3.086538462 1799 N N 0.97
Healing Harem 12.99 0.1 24 10 15 1.5 605 N N
Spark Five 2.99 0.3 0 0 0 0 7 N N
Bad Dream: Fever 9.99 0.2 30 78 134 1.717948718 907 N N 0.72
Underworld Ascendant 29.99 0.15 200 216 288 1.333333333 8870 N N 0.34
Reentry 19.99 0.15 8 24 78 3.25 202 Y N 0.95
Zvezda 5.99 0 2 0 0 0 25 Y Y
Space Gladiator 2.99 0 0 1 2 2 5 N N
Bad North 14.99 0.1 500 360 739 2.052777778 15908 N N 0.8
Sanctus Mortem 9.99 0.15 3 3 3 1 84 N Y
The Occluder 1.99 0.2 1 1 1 1 13 N N
Dark Fantasy: Jigsaw 2.99 0.2 1 9 36 4 32 N N 0.91
Farming Simulator 19 34.99 0 1500 3895 5759 1.478562259 37478 N N 0.76
Don't Forget Our Esports Dream 14.99 0.13 3 16 22 1.375 150 N N 1
Space Toads Mayhem 3.99 0.15 1 2 3 1.5 18 N N
Cattle Call 11.99 0.1 10 19 53 2.789473684 250 Y N 0.71
Ralf 9.99 0.2 0 0 2 0 6 N N
Elite Archery 0.99 0.4 0 2 3 1.5 5 Y N
Evidence of Life 4.99 0 0 2 4 2 10 N N
Trinity VR 4.99 0 2 8 15 1.875 61 N N
Quiet as a Stone 9.99 0.1 1 1 4 4 42 N N
Overdungeon 14.99 0 3 86 572 6.651162791 77 Y N 0.91
Protocol 24.99 0.15 60 41 117 2.853658537 1764 N N 0.68
Scraper: First Strike 29.99 0 3 3 15 5 69 N N
Experiment Gone Rogue 16.99 0 1 1 5 5 27 Y N
Emerald Shores 9.99 0.2 0 1 2 2 12 N N
Age of Civilizations II 4.99 0 600 1109 2733 2.464382326 18568 N N 0.82
Dereliction 4.99 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! 18 N N
Poopy Philosophy 0.99 0 0 6 10 1.666666667 6 N N
NOCE 17.99 0.1 1 3 4 1.333333333 35 N N
Qu-tros 2.99 0.4 0 3 7 2.333333333 4 N N
Mosaics Galore. Challenging Journey 4.99 0.2 1 1 8 8 14 N N
Zquirrels Jump 2.99 0.4 0 1 4 4 9 N N
Dark Siders III 59.99 0 2400 1721 2708 1.573503777 85498 N N 0.67
R-Type Dimensions Ex 14.99 0.2 10 48 64 1.333333333 278 N N 0.92
Artifact 19.99 0 7000 9700 16584 1.709690722 140000 N N 0.53
Crimson Keep 14.99 0.15 20 5 6 1.2 367 N N
Rival Megagun 14.99 0 35 26 31 1.192307692 818 N N
Santa's Workshop 1.99 0.1 3 1 1 1 8 N N
Hentai Shadow 1.99 0.3 2 12 6 14 N N
Ricky Runner 12.99 0.3 3 6 13 2.166666667 66 Y N 0.87
Pro Fishing Simulator 39.99 0.15 24 20 19 0.95 609 N N 0.22
Broken Reality 14.99 0.1 60 58 138 2.379310345 1313 N Y 0.98
Rapture Rejects 19.99 0 200 82 151 1.841463415 9250 Y N 0.64
Lost Cave 19.99 0 3 8 11 1.375 43 Y N
Epic Battle Fantasy 5 14.99 0 300 395 896 2.26835443 4236 N N 0.97
Ride 3 49.99 0 75 161 371 2.304347826 1951 N N 0.74
Escape Doodland 9.99 0.2 25 16 19 1.1875 1542 N N
Hillbilly Apocalypse 5.99 0.1 0 1 2 2 8 N N
X4 49.99 0 1500 2638 4303 1.63115997 38152 N N 0.7
Splotches 9.99 0.15 0 2 1 0.5 10 N N
Above the Fold 13.99 0.15 5 2 6 3 65 Y N
The Seven Chambers 12.99 0.3 3 0 0 #DIV/0! 55 N N
Terminal Conflict 29.99 0 5 4 11 2.75 125 Y N
Just Cause 4 59.99 0 2400 2083 3500 1.680268843 50000 N N 0.34
Grapple Force Rena 14.99 0 11 12 29 2.416666667 321 N Y
Beholder 2 14.99 0.1 479 950 1.983298539 16000 N N 0.84
Blueprint Word 1.99 0 12 15 1.25 244 N Y
Aeon of Sands 19.99 0.1 20 12 25 2.083333333 320 N N
Oakwood 4.99 0.1 32 68 2.125 70 N N 0.82
Endhall 4.99 0 4 22 42 1.909090909 79 N N 0.84
Dr. Cares - Family Practice 12.99 0.25 6 3 8 2.666666667 39 N N
Treasure Hunter 16.99 0.15 200 196 252 1.285714286 4835 N N 0.6
Forex Trading 1.99 0.4 7 10 14 1.4 209 N N
Ancient Frontier 14.99 0 24 5 16 3.2 389 N N
Fear the Night 14.99 0.25 25 201 440 2.189054726 835 Y N 0.65
Subterraneus 12.99 0.1 4 0 3 #DIV/0! 82 N N
Starcom: Nexus 14.99 0.15 53 119 2.245283019 1140 Y N 0.93
Subject 264 14.99 0.2 25 2 3 1.5 800 N N
Gris 16.9 0 100 1484 4650 3.133423181 5779 N N 0.96
Exiled to the Void 7.99 0.3 9 4 11 2.75 84 Y N
Column Explanations
For the columns that are not self-explanatory:

Question 1: Does Quality Predict Success?

There was a recent blog post stating that the #1 metric for indie games' success is how good it is.
Quality is obviously a subjective metric. The most obvious objective measure of quality for Steam games is their % Favorable Review score. This is the percentage of reviews by purchasers of the game that gave the game a positive rating. I excluded any game that did not have at least 20 user reviews in the first month, which limited the sample size to 56.
The (Pearson) correlation of a game's review score to its number of reviews three months after its release was -0.2. But 0.2 (plus or minus) isn't a very strong correlation at all. More importantly, Pearson correlation can be swayed if the data contains some big outliers. Looking at the actual games, we can see that the difference is an artifact of an outlier. Literally. Valve's Artifact by far had the most reviews after three months and had one of the lowest review scores (53% at the time). Removing this game from the data changed the correlation to essentially zero.
Spearman's Rho, an alternative correlation model that correlates rank position and minimizes the effect of huge outliers produced a similar result.
Conclusion: If there is correlation between a game's quality (as measured by Steam review score) and first quarter sales (as measured by total review count), it is too subtle to be detected in this data.

Question 2: Do Demos, Early Access or Launch Discounts Affect Success/Failure?

Unfortunately, there were so few games that had demos prior to release (10) that only a very strong correlation would really tell us anything. As it happens, there was no meaningful correlation one way or another.
There were more Early Access titles (28), but again the correlation was too small to be meaningful.
More than half the titles had a launch week discount and there was actually a moderate negative correlation of -0.3 between having a launch discount and first week review count. However it appears that this is primarily the result of the tendency of AAA titles (which sell the most copies) to not do launch discounts. Removing the titles that likely grossed over a $1 million in the first week reduced the correlation to basically zero.
Conclusion: Insufficient data. No clear correlation between demos, Early Access or launch discount and review counts: if they help or hurt the effect is not consistent enough to be seen here.

Question 3: Does pre-launch awareness (i.e., Steam followers) predict success?

You can see the number of "followers" for any game on Steam by searching for its automatically-created Community Group. Prior to launch, this is a good rough indicator of market awareness.
The correlation between group followers shortly before launch and review count at 3 months was 0.89. That's a very strong positive correlation. The rank correlation was also high (0.85) suggesting that this wasn't the result of a few highly anticipated games.
Save for a single outlier (discussed later), the ratio of 3 month review counts to pre-launch followers ranged from 0 (for the handful of games that never received any reviews) to 1.8, with a median value of 0.1. If you have 1000 followers just prior to launch, then at the end of the first quarter you should expect "about" 100 reviews.
One thing I noticed was that there were a few games that had follower counts that seemed too high compared to secondary indicators of market awareness, such as discussion forum threads and Twitter engagement. After some investigation I came to the conclusion that pre-launch key activations are treated as followers by Steam. If a game gave away a lot of Steam keys before launch (say as Kickstarter rewards or part of beta testing) this would cause the game to appear to have more followers than it had gained "organically."
Conclusion: Organic followers prior to launch are a strong predictor of a game's eventual success.

Question 4: What about price?

The correlation between price and review count at 3 month is 0.36, which is moderate correlation. I'm not sure how useful that data point is: it is somewhat obvious that higher budget games have larger marketing budgets.
There is a correlation between price and review score of -0.41. It seems likely that players do factor price into their reviews and a game priced at $60 has a higher bar to clear to earn a thumbs up review than a game priced at $10.

Question 5: Do first week sales predict first quarter results?

The correlation between number of reviews after 1 week and number of reviews after 3 months was 0.99. The Spearman correlation was 0.97. This is the highest correlation I found in the data.
Excluding games that sold very few copies (fewer than 5 reviews after the first week), most games had around twice as many reviews after 3 months as they did after 1 week. This suggests that games sell about as many copies in their first week as they do in the next 12 weeks combined. The vast majority of games had a tail ratio (ratio of reviews at 3 months to 1 week) of between 1.3 to 3.2.
I have seen a number of questions from developers whose game had a poor launch on Steam and wanted to know what they can do to improve sales. While I'm certain post-launch marketing can have an effect on continuing sales, your first week does seem to set hard bounds on your results.
Conclusion: ALL SIGNS POINT TO YES

Question 6: Does Quality Help with a Game's "Tail"?

As discussed in the last question while first week sales are very strongly correlated with first quarter, there's still quite a wide range of ratios. Defining a game's Tail Ratio as the ratio of reviews after 3 months to after 1 week, the lowest value was 0.95 for "Pro Fishing Simulator" which actually managed to lose 1 review. The highest ratio was 6.9, an extreme outlier that I'll talk about later. It is perhaps not a coincidence that the worst tail had a Steam score of 22% and the best tail had a Steam score of 96%.
The overall correlation between the Tail Ratio and Steam score was 0.42.
Conclusion: Even though there is no clear correlation between quality and overall review count/sales, there is a moderate correlation between a game's review score and its tail. This suggests that "good games" do better in the long run than "bad games," but the effect is small compared to the more important factor of pre-launch awareness.

Question 7: Is it possible to predict a game's success before launch without knowing its wishlists?

While I was compiling the data for each game, sometime prior to its scheduled launch date, I would make a prediction of how many reviews I thought it would receive in its first week and add that prediction to the spreadsheet.
The #1 factor I used in making my prediction was group follower count. In some cases I would adjust my prediction if I thought that value was off, using secondary sources such as Steam forum activity and Twitter engagement.
The correlation between my guess and the actual value was 0.96, which is a very strong correlation. As you can see in the data, the predictions are, for the most part, in the right ballpack with a few cases where I was way off.
Based on my experience, multiplying the group follower count by 0.1 will, in most cases, give you a ballpark sense of the first week quarter review count. If a game doesn't have at least one question in the discussion forum for every 100 followers, that may indicate that there are large number of "inorganic" followers and you may need to adjust your estimate.
Conclusion: Yes, with a few exceptions, using follower data and other indicators you can predict first week results approximately. Given the strong correlation between first week and quarter sales, it should also be possible to have a ballpark idea of first quarter results before launch.

Final Question: What about the outliers you mentioned?

There were a few games in the data that stood out significantly in one way or another.
Outlier #1: Overdungeon. This game had 77 group followers shortly before launch, a fairly small number and based solely on that number I would have expected fewer than a dozen reviews in the first week. It ended up with 86. Not only that, it had a strong tail and finished its first quarter with 572 reviews. This was by a wide margin the highest review count to follower ratio in the sample.
Based on the reviews, it appears to basically be Slay the Spire, but huge in Asia. 90% of the reviews seem to be in Japanese or Chinese. If anyone has some insight to this game's unusual apparent success, I'm very curious.
This seems to be the only clear example in the data of a game with minimal following prior to launch going on to having a solid first quarter.
Outlier #2: 11-11 Memories Retold. This game had 767 group followers shortly before launch, ten times as many as Overdungeon. That's still not a large number for even a small indie title. It had a fair amount going for it, though: it was directed by Yoan Fanise, who co-directed the critally acclaimed Valiant Hearts, a game with a similar theme. It was animated by Aardman Studios of "Wallace and Gromit" fame. Its publisher was Bandai Namco Europe, a not inexperienced publisher. The voice acting was by Sebastian Koch and Elijah Wood. It has dozens of good reviews in both gaming and traditional press. It currently has a 95% positive review rating on Steam.
Despite all that, nobody bought it. 24 hours after it came out it had literally zero reviews on Steam. One week after it came out it had just 10. Three months later it had demonstrated the largest tail in the data, but even then it had only climbed to 69 reviews. Now it's at about 100, an incredible tail ratio, but almost certainly a commercial failure.
This is a solid example that good game + good production values does necessarily equal good sales.

Final notes:
The big take-aways from this analysis are:
Thanks for reading!
submitted by justkevin to gamedev [link] [comments]

OVERCOMING ANALYSIS PARALYSIS IN FOREX TRADING

Analysis paralysis according to Wikipedia is the state of over analyzing (or overthinking) a situation so that a decision or action is never taken, in effect paralyzing the outcome.
Have you ever being in of those scenarios where you see what you believe initially to be a perfectly good trade setup, however as you continue to analyse and study the situation you begin to feel less and less confident about the trade and you are not sure why this happened. I know most traders would have encountered this scenario at some point in their trading journey because I myself have also experienced it.
This is a common scenario for traders and it occurs mostly when the trader has too much congestion in their thinking. With this highly congested thinking which happens as a result of too many detailed options, it leads to the outcome of a choice not being made. Analysis paralysis can happen in trading when the trader is afraid of making any decision that could to lead to a bad trade.
Most traders often over analyse themselves right out of a quality trade setup, and it can be very much problematic, in the sense that it can have severe negative consequences on the traders performance and the traders psychology. Over analysis can also cause a trader to jump out of a perfectly good trade they have already executed. The purpose of this article is to figure out the ways analysis paralysis negatively impacts trading and its solutions.
Too many external influences Have you ever been in a scenario when you woke up in the morning, get yourself ready, turn on your laptop, pull up your trading platform, go through it and spot a very good setup, a setup that defines your edge then you decide to pull up cnbc, Bloomberg etc or you decide to ask your friend. After all you have read and hearing your friends opinion about that setup you realize your mindset has been turned against the setup you were so confident about before you decided to listen to other opinions, then you shut your laptop only for you to turn it back on later to see that the setup is playing out exactly as you initially anticipated it to.
Solution: Making a decision to ignore external influences
The key to ignoring external influences such as the ones discussed above is to be a lone soldier in this psychological battlefield called the forex market. This is something every trader must do because their survival and tendency to arrive at a consistent and successful trading journey depends on it. For this lone ranger status to be attained the trader needs to simply gain the understanding and knowledge that these external influences are only there to hurt them. Once the trader fully believes and accepts this, such trader will no longer care about them and instead focus more on mastering their trading method.
Thinking yourself out of a good trade Most traders including me have been a victim of this scenario when you find a perfectly good setup that meets your edge in the market and instead of pulling the trigger and executing the trade you are just sited in front of your chart paralyzed as a result of over analyzing, and over thinking, looking around at different variables until you convince yourself the trade setup would not work.
Solution: Don’t think so hard about it
This aspect is a little bit complicated because there a lot of reasons traders think themselves out of perfectly good trading setups but the main two are fear and uncertainty. For a trader to become consistent and successful such trader needs to stop being afraid of losing money and the best way to overcome this fear is to accept it. Having it in mind that even the best traders in the world do have losing trades. having this in mind will help you eliminate the fear of losses. Also have it in mind that every trade is just another execution of your trading edge, don’t think too hard when you see a signal that meets your edge instead just pull the trigger by executing the trade and walking away.
Having a clustered chart Analysis paralysis would definitely creep in when it discovers a trader has a clustered chart, when I say a clustered chart I mean when a traders chart is crowded with different indicators like moving averages, stochastic, Bollinger bands etc I am not saying indicators are not good because I myself use a few of them but what I’m saying is that some traders chart can look messy because they have many different indicators on their chart and with trying to analyse all the numerous indicators all at the same would lead to analysis paralysis.
Solution: Decluster your chart
This one is very much straight forward, all the trader needs to do is to decluster their chart by removing all the conflicting indicators from their chart and adopt a straight forward, less conflicting trading method like price action trading.
Not having an edge Analysis paralysis can also creep in when a trader doesn’t have an edge in the market. When a trader doesn’t know what to look out for before pulling the trigger, such trader can be presented with a perfectly good setup and still won’t do anything.
Solution: Get an edge
All a trader in this situation needs to do is to research a trading method that suites his/her own personality, master it, and use it as their own edge in the market
Too little confidence in your ability as a trader Any trader who isn’t confident in their ability to trade would definitely attract analysis paralysis because such trader would always second guess themselves. As a trader you need to be decisive to make money.
Solution: Get proper training and quality screen time
The best solutions to low self confidence when it comes to forex trading are education and quality screen time. So any trader that finds themselves in this situation should get proper education on forex trading and after obtaining education and mastering a trading strategy the trader should simply get quality screen time by practicing their trading system on a demo account or on a live account with small funds, this would do a good job by boosting their confidence as traders.
In conclusion, even the best traders in the world at some point in their lives went through analysis paralysis scenarios. Scenarios where they have over thought and over analysed themselves out of quality setups but at the end of the day they still turned out good. So if you are having this issue carefully read the solutions and set out on your journey of departing from the island of analysis paralysis.
submitted by frankmore to Forex [link] [comments]

Weekly Roundup

News roundup for the previous week.
In International news
  1. Popular Chinese teenage star speaks up for youth at UN Forum: Wang Yuan, UNICEF Special Advocate for Education and member of TFBoys, addressed a global audience of youth, leaders and development experts before the closing plenary of the 7th Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) Youth Forum
  2. China says it welcomes investment by foreign companies as long as they respect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity
  3. Trump wants $716 Billion by 2019 to pursue "aggressive defense" against China
  4. Why Is China Buying Up Europe’s Ports? In bustling ports from Singapore to the North Sea, state-owned Chinese firms are turning the idea into a reality with a series of aggressive acquisitions that are physically redrawing the map of global trade and political influence
  5. Taiwan Social Media in Uproar, Surprised by What Expats Would do (litter, stereotype locals, with no "bad intentions")
  6. Taiwan Calls on its Firms not to Break North Korea Sanctions (after a report found a network of ships supplying petroleum products based in Taiwan)
  7. Tillerson China-bashing turns counterproductive
  8. #Venezuela Skirts U.S. Sanctions With Chinese Oil-For-Cash Loans: Oil-for-loan deals between Beijing and Caracas are preventing American sanctions from having their full effect on Venezuela’s economy, according to David Malpass, U.S. treasury under-secretary for international affairs
  9. China’s new pitch to win over #Taiwan: Our jobs are better. About 420,000 Taiwanese people, 58% of those employed off the island, worked in China as of 2015. They earn 1.2 to 1.3 times more money on average than in Taiwan
  10. Beijing has duty to make Taiwan abide by UN sanctions
  11. Chinese-funded projects totaling 53 have created 16,511 jobs for Ugandans in the first 11 months of 2017, while bilateral trade between China and #Uganda amounted to 750 million U.S. dollars during the same period
  12. China Reportedly Negotiating Creation of Military Base With #Afghanistan: “We are going to build it [the base] but the Chinese government has committed to help the division financially, provide equipment and train the Afghan soldiers,” Defense Ministry deputy spokesman said
  13. Asia University Rankings 2018 released: China and Hong Kong have five of the top 10 institutions in Asia, 12 of the top 20 and 30 of the top 100
  14. China is guest of honor at 27th Havana International Book Fair: More than 200 Chinese writers, artists and representatives from publishing houses are attending. They are offering a wide range of contemporary Chinese literature, translated into Spanish
  15. China and #Vietnam close to landmark deal on streamlined joint border checkpoint. The two countries share a 1,280km (795 mile) land border and have been discussing a “two countries, one inspection” system for several years
  16. China's spending in Central and Eastern European countries is helping clear a path toward more investment in Western Europe, one former economic adviser to the Serbian government told CNBC
  17. With Sri Lankan port acquisition, China adds another 'pearl' to its 'string'
  18. Russia and China vie to beat the US in the trillion-dollar race to control the #Arctic
  19. Lavish military parades are almost an art form in North Korea, Russia and China. Will Trump reintroduce them in Washington DC? [It's explicitly confirmed Trump wants to do it after watching France's military parade, I wonder why others "Soviet style hardware display" are being dragged in]
  20. U.S. remains committed to one-China policy, Tillerson says
  21. Russia and China challenge dollar domination Iran joining
  22. While Trump eyes Latin America with malign neglect, China sees opportunity
  23. U.S. and China reaffirm commitment to pressure North Korea
  24. Donald Trump Offers a Helping Hand to China and Russia
  25. Alibaba kicks off sponsor deal in Pyeongchang
  26. China's Su smashes indoor 60m Asian record for 2nd time in four days
  27. China’s latest move in the graveyard of empires
  28. US hits Uighur terror group to impress China
In Domestic news
  1. China to vitalise its rural areas
  2. Chinese #Eden Project to feature world's highest indoor waterfall: An artist’s impression features one large biome and a series of streams and lakes. The waterfall will plunge from 50m – the height of Niagara Falls
  3. [HD] New photos show South China Sea construction close to completion
  4. China Could Steer Self-Driving Cars
  5. China's first automated restaurant opens in Hangzhou: 24-hour a day restaurant features intelligent ordering, service notifications, self-service dining, and automatic payments
  6. Long March 2D launches platform for earthquake observation into space: The satellite is an important platform for studying the electromagnetic environment of Earth and has vital applications in research into the precursors of earthquakes
  7. China Taking the Lead in Space
  8. Face Recognition Glasses Augment China’s Railway Cops
  9. #Quantum Video Call Displays the Future of Secure Communication: Previously, we knew that the 75 minute call used Micius to send data, contained in photons, to two stations operated by China and Europe. Now, however, we know the specifics regarding how everything came together
  10. How China’s AI technology can help Twitter’s suicidal users: The system has been used on Weibo for the past nine months, identifying more than 20,000 users who expressed suicidal thoughts and sending messages to them with a hotline number and online tools to get professional help
  11. In China, these facial-recognition glasses are helping police to catch criminals
  12. China’s tough #cyber rules raise risk of infiltration, US business group says: In a report, the council said China should open access to cloud computing services, level the playing field in technology procurement and allow foreign firms to send copies of data abroad for analysis and processing
  13. China to build the country’s first heating nuclear reactor
  14. Controlling quantum interactions in a single material: breakthrough could enable ultrafast, low-power electronics and quantum computers that operate faster than current models in the areas of data acquisition, processing, and exchange. Jiangang He and Franchini served as the paper's co-first authors
  15. Citation impact helps China surge ahead in latest Asia rankings: China has 63 institutions, up from 54 last year, and a breakdown of its average scores in each metric shows that as well as citation impact, it has also made significant ground on research income and the reputation of its universities
In Economic news
  1. China to Probe U.S. Sorghum Subsidies
  2. Baidu’s plan: beat Google in self-driving cars with a totally Google-y move
  3. China to launch anti-dumping investigation into U.S. sorghum imports
  4. China’s forex new year resolution: hit illegal currency outflows hard
  5. World markets crash, except for China
  6. Trump said he’d shrink the trade deficit with China. It just hit a record high.
  7. Government policy constrains Embraer, Bombardier jet offerings for China regional airlines
  8. What happened in China business last week?
  9. Renault-Nissan and Didi plan self-driving ride service in China
  10. Global times: The idea that China has more to lose in a trade war with the US is absurd| Hu Says
  11. Daimler apologizes to China for quoting Dalai Lama: #Daimler has no intention of questioning or challenging in any manner China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Offers no support, assistance, aid or help to anyone who intentionally subverts or attempts to subvert China's sovereignty
  12. This small electric car made by GM’s Chinese joint-venture can cost just $5,600
  13. China Set To Launch Yuan-Prices Oil Futures Next Month
In Military news
  1. China’s plan to use artificial intelligence to boost the thinking skills of nuclear submarine commanders. Equipping nuclear submarines with AI would give China an upper hand in undersea battles
  2. China’s military fires up world first in revolutionary rail gun technology
  3. China conducts missile interception test: Midcourse interception is often regarded as the most difficult in the three flight phases because the incoming missile usually reaches its maximum speed and height during its flight above the atmosphere
  4. PLAAF Su-35 patrol South China Sea
  5. China Intercepts Missile in Space One Week After Failed US Attempt
  6. China plans sea-based anti-missile shields ‘for Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean’
  7. Missile defense test in pursuit of equilibrium: US has been talking recently with its list of rogue states and its portrayals of China and Russia as predatory rivals and revisionist powers challenging the rules-based order. But then the biggest lies are usually told with shows of sincerity
  8. China sends advanced fighter jets to South China Sea for first time
  9. US warns about the expanding nuclear arsenals of China, Russia, and North Korea
  10. China's military facilities in #SouthChinaSea 'almost ready': runways for the three biggest islands have been completed. Lighthouses, radar domes, hangars and buildings have been built, while helipads, wind turbines and observation and communication towers can be seen on four smaller islands
  11. Electromagnetic guns should be fitted on China's new destroyer the Type 055: Because direction energy weapons, including electromagnetic and laser guns, would consume a huge amount of energy, only warships with integrated full electronic propulsion systems could meet such energy requirements
  12. China's CH-4 drone completes first live-fire test: The tested CH-4 is an upgraded version of the model which was first produced in 2015
  13. Pentagon: China, Russia Soon Capable of Destroying U.S. #Satellites. The report concludes that "China and Russia will be capable of severely disrupting or destroying U.S. satellites in low-earth orbit" in the next several years, said the officials
  14. China Using AI to Build Nuclear #Submarine That Can 'Think for Itself': The "machine learning" process means the computer running the nuclear submarine would be able to work without any human involvement, receiving knowledge, building on its skills and developing new battle strategies
  15. China's Su-35 fighter jets, J-20 stealth jets to maintain airspace safety
Other Notables
  1. Chaoyang resident discovers suspects by unusual food delivery: Residents living in #Chaoyang District, Beijing were given the nickname of “world’s fifth largest intelligence agency”, by Chinese netizens due to their excellent intelligence-gathering ability
  2. In 2017 mainland China grew GDP by $USD 1.055 Trillion, an all time record high.
  3. Happy Lunar New Year flash mob dance
  4. Operation Red Sea - Wolf Warrior on steroids, coming out this month people.
  5. Bruce Lee Star Wars Mashup Is Amazing
  6. Jackie Chan & Arnold Schwarzenegger: Journey to China: The Mystery of Iron Mask.
  7. The Monkey King 3 Trailer #1 (w/ English Subs)
  8. China's SCS artificial island sizes (Washington DC for Scale)
  9. Oriental Dreamworks Relaunches As 100% Chinese-Owned Pearl Studio: The studio’s first release will be Everest, the previously announced Dreamworks Animation film
  10. Mercedes-Benz aggravates Chinese consumers with Instagram post quoting Dalai Lama
  11. 沒有共產黨就沒有新中國 Without the Communist Party, there would be no new China 1080pHD
  12. “Monkey King” actor from the 1986 TV series performing for the New Years Gala
  13. CCP need to put a mandate onto Chinese film industry
  14. [Traditional Instrument Music] 吹簫人去玉樓空
  15. Uncovered Chinese tomb is confirmed as belonging to eldest son of Han Dynasty emperor who was kicked out just a month into the job
  16. Why China Loves Trump
  17. China's irresistible rise
  18. What's Taiwan DPP hiding after the Earthquake? They are refusing all official help from EVERY government except Japan
  19. Discover the ancient city site of Xiongnu
  20. Han Geng publicly announces his relationship with Wolf Warriors 2 actress Celina Jade
  21. Su Bingtian 60m 6.43 New Asian Record - Dusseldorf 2018 [1080p]
  22. Nanjing and Hangzhou by 木白-文
  23. 9,000-year-old wells found in central China: Previously it was believed that wells first appeared along the Yangtze River some 6,000 to 7,000 years ago in the late Neolithic period
  24. Haval's futuristic car concept ad
  25. The Quad Jump Is Changing Figure Skating. Nathan Chen Is Leading the Way
  26. 南禅寺 Nanchan Temple was built in 782 during China’s Tang dynasty, and its Great Buddha Hall is currently China’s oldest preserved timber building extant
  27. Niagara Falls lit up in red to welcome Chinese New Year: "In celebration of the Chinese New Year, and in recognition of 2018 being designated the Canada-China Year of Tourism, we are glad to illuminate Niagara Falls in a shade of red this evening,"
  28. Jeremy Lin leads NBA's record-setting Chinese New Year celebrations
  29. A Libertarian’s Take on China’s Belt & Road Initiative
submitted by AutoModerator to Sino [link] [comments]

Current State of the Brokers

Still Operating
In Danger
Shutdown
No Annoucement
submitted by J2000_ca to Forex [link] [comments]

How to Trade the Three White Soldiers Chart Pattern ... Live Forex Trade 317$ Profit just in 3 Hours Real Account ... What Is A Three White Soldiers Candlestick Pattern And How Does It Works In English? Three White Soldiers Patterns and Trading with Entries and Stops $200 TO $3,000 IN 3 DAYS TRADING FOREX IN 2020!! - YouTube How I Made $7200 In 3 Hours Trading Forex! Step-By-Step ...

3 Soldiers + Retest Candlestick Pattern. 11/12/2014 9:00 am EST. Focus: FOREX. It’s often said that Japanese candlestick patterns don’t offer a ‘winning edge’ on their own for currency traders, but Adam Lemon, of DailyForex.com, demonstrates why he believes there are a few that do, by looking at a powerful, yet rarely discussed and not well known pattern. The analysis of Japanese ... For a more complete forex trading strategy, the Three White Soldiers can be used with other technical analysis. Three White Soldiers Candlestick Pattern buy strategy . Look for the pattern in a downtrend. Wait for the price bar to go bullish before entering. Set a stop-loss near the recent low from the Three White Soldiers. Exit the trade when the price level drops. Three White Soldiers ... Triple candlestick patterns: three soldiers and crows Three soldiers candlestick pattern. The three soldiers pattern is a reversal pattern. It is also sometimes called the “three advancing soldiers” or “three white soldiers”. It is found at the end of a downtrend and it is a clear indication of a shift in the balance from the sellers to ... Three White Soldiers — Sehen Sie sich die Trading Ideen, Strategien, Meinungen und Analysen absolut kostenlos an! — Indikatoren und Signale I want to cover a Forex trading strategy that is based on 2 candlestick chart patterns and they are called: The Three White Soldiers Candlestick Pattern; Three Black Crows Candlestick Pattern; Both of these candlestick chart patterns work in combination with each other and for the sake of simplicity, let’s just call it the “3 white soldiers and 3 black crows trading strategy“. 1.1.3 Wie man Three White Soldiers installieren & Drei schwarze Krähen Forex Swing Trading Strategie? Die drei Soldaten Muster ist eine zinsbullische Umkehr Leuchter und sie bilden nach einem Bearish Markt. Wenn diese 3 Leuchter gebildet, es gibt das Ende des Abwärtstrends. Die drei schwarzen Krähen-Muster ist eine rückläufige Umkehr Leuchter und sie bilden nach einem bullish Markt. Wenn ... Disadvantages of The 3 White Soldier Chart Pattern Forex Trading Strategy. as mentioned above, buying wold have been overstretched by the bulls and after that there is the likelihood that price may make retracements downward. Where the downward retracement is temporary (which means it fails and price later rises up) is left to be seen. stop loss distances tend to be “humongous” if you are ... Forex Trading Strategies Installation Instructions. Three White Soldiers & Three Black Crows Forex Swing Trading Strategy is a combination of Metatrader 4 (MT4) indicator(s) and template. The essence of this forex strategy is to transform the accumulated history data and trading signals. Three White Soldiers & Three Black Crows Forex Swing Trading Strategy provides an opportunity to detect ... Three White Soldiers-Three Black Crows Swing Trading System Is A Very Simple Forex Strategy That You Can Use Catch Reversals Just When It Begins. Learn To Trade This Chart Pattern In Here. When trading the three white soldiers pattern, it's important to note that the strong moves higher could create temporary overbought conditions. The relative strength index (RSI), for example, may ...

[index] [22631] [7478] [13049] [12668] [22129] [15800] [6972] [13599] [11434] [12331]

How to Trade the Three White Soldiers Chart Pattern ...

Live Forex Trade in Real Account +317$ + 71$ Profit just in 3 Hours All Trades Placed with Logic. and it is not a trick. All Take Profit levels are very Stro... Three white soldiers patterns and how to trade them with proper entries and stop levels. 🎈 Start your 14-day free trial with our trading community here: http... I work with small balance accounts just to show you all what is possible trading forex when you have the real I knowledge become a member at Fxcapitalonline.... $7200 IN 3 HOURS TRADING FOREX FULL STRATEGY BREAKDOWN! XAU/USD (GOLD) went crazy last night in the market! Shot up 1300 PIPS .. I was about to catch about... 3 White Soldiers Candlestick Pattern. http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/course/candlesticks-reversals.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN D... Welcome to my youtube channel. Three White Soldiers is another type of Candlestick Pattern. It consists of 3 bullish candles and occurs after the downtrend. When a three white soldiers candlestick ...

https://arab-binary-option.nelbeschrecira.tk