While reasearching Epstein's known associates, an interesting individual stood out. Lynn Forester de Rothschild, Lady de Rothschild.
No intention of this being a Rothschild Conspiracy. If your are uninterested to read the content below, scroll down to Comment to get my summary and take on this information. As always please Fact check this.
(HJI) is a bi-partisan, transatlantic movement of business leaders, senior policy makers and academics focused on promoting a more Inclusive Capitalism. The HJI calls for international collaboration from businesses and other organizations to encourage the widest possible adoption of programs that improve capitalism as a driver of wellbeing for society.
The HJI grew out of the Task Force project For Inclusive Capitalism, which sought solutions to the effects on society and business as a result of the global financial crisis of 2007 – 2008 and the dislocations caused by capitalism’s practice over the past 30 years. The Taskforce, which was co-chaired by Dominic Barton, Global Managing Director, McKinsey & Company, and Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, CEO, El Rothschild, published its inaugural paper Towards a More Inclusive Capitalism in May 2012. The report sets out three pathways for business action that lie at the heart of the HJI’s mandate:
- Education for employment: addressing the gap between employer needs and employee skills
- Nurture start-ups and SMEs: mentoring small businesses and improving access to credit for them
- Reform management and governance for the long term: replacing today’s focus on short term performance
The HJI exists to highlight and support businesses and other organizations working to promote the broadest possible adoption of best practices in these and other areas related to Inclusive Capitalism. The HJI believes there is an urgent and compelling demand for business to act to address the greatest systemic issues facing capitalism today. The HJI also believes that business is best positioned to lead innovations in areas that need them the most.
WHO WAS HENRY JACKSON? Henry Martin
(May 31, 1912 – September 1, 1983) was an American politician who served as a U.S. Representative
(1941–1953) and U.S. Senator
(1953–1983) from the state of Washington
). A Cold War liberal
and anti-Communist Democrat
), Jackson supported higher military spending and a hard line against the Soviet Union
, while also supporting social welfare programs, civil rights
, and labor unions.
Jackson was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom
posthumously in 1984; Ronald Reagan
called him "one of the greatest lawmakers of our century," and stated:
Scoop Jackson was convinced that there's no place for partisanship in foreign and defense policy. He used to say, 'In matters of national security, the best politics is no politics.' His sense of bipartisanship was not only natural and complete; it was courageous. He wanted to be President, but I think he must have known that his outspoken ideas on the security of the Nation would deprive him of the chance to be his party's nominee in 1972 and '76. Still, he would not cut his convictions to fit the prevailing style. I'm deeply proud, as he would have been, to have Jackson Democrats serve in my administration. I'm proud that some of them have found a home here.
Jackson was known as a hawkish Democrat. He was often criticized for his support for the Vietnam War
and his close ties to the defense industries of his state. His proposal of Fort Lawton
as a site for an anti-ballistic missile
system was strongly opposed by local residents, and Jackson was forced to modify his position on the location of the site several times, but continued to support ABM development. American Indian rights activists who protested Jackson's plan to give Fort Lawton to Seattle, instead of returning it to local tribes, staged a sit-in
. In the eventual compromise, most of Fort Lawton became Discovery Park
), with 20 acres (8.1 ha) leased to United Indians of All Tribes
, who opened the Daybreak Star Cultural Center
there in 1977.
Opponents derided him as "the Senator from Boeing
" and a "whore for Boeing" because of his consistent support for additional military spending on weapons systems and accusations of wrongful contributions from the company; in 1965, 80% of Boeing's contracts were military. Jackson and Magnuson's campaigning for an expensive government supersonic transport
plane project eventually failed.
After his death, critics pointed to Jackson's support for Japanese American internment
camps during World War II
as a reason to protest the placement of his bust at the University of Washington
.Jackson was both an enthusiastic defender of the evacuation and a staunch proponent of the campaign to keep the Japanese-Americans from returning to the Pacific Coast after the war.
Jackson Papers controversy
Senator Jackson's documents were donated to the University of Washington
shortly after his death in 1983, and have been archived there ever since.When the materials were donated in 1983, university staff removed all information considered classified
at the time.Additional materials were added to the collection until 1995.
At some point, library staff discovered a classified document in the collection and sent it to the government for declassification
. In response, in the summer of 2004, a man who identified himself as an employee of the Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA) called the University of Washington
asking to inspect Senator Jackson's archived documents housed there. He found a document labelled as classified and showed this to a librarian.
In February 2005, 22 years after Jackson's death, a five-person team including staff of the CIA, Department of Defense
, the Department of Energy
, and the Information Security Oversight Office
came to library to review all of Jackson's papers to remove anything still considered classified, or reclassified since then. The Department of Energy found nothing of concern, but the CIA blanked lines in about 20 papers and pulled 8 documents out of collection. As of 2018, some files in the collection are available only to those regarded by the library as "serious researchers", who must first sign a release not to divulge some of the information contained in the files.
The Henry Jackson Society
The society was founded on 11 March 2005 by academics and students at Cambridge, including Brendan Simms
, Alan Mendoza, Gideon Mailer, James Rogers and Matthew Jamison. It organises meetings with speakers in the House of Commons
. The society claims that it advocates an interventionist
) foreign-policy that promotes human rights and reduces suffering, by both non-military and military methods, when appropriate.
In 2006, the society worked to raise the profile of the Ahwazi Arabs
, who it claims are currently being oppressed by the Iranian government.
After originating within the University of Cambridge
, the organisation is now based in London
. In April 2011 the entire staff of another London think-tank, the Centre for Social Cohesion
(which has since been dissolved), joined the Henry Jackson Society.
The organisation is a registered charity
in England and Wales
and earns financial backing from private donations and grant-making organisations which support its work. The income of the society increased significantly from 2009 to 2014, from £98,000 to £1.6 million per year.
In 2017 Hannah Stuart, one of the society's Research Fellows, released Islamist Terrorism: Analysis of Offences and Attacks in the UK (1998–2015)
, which profiled every individual convicted under terrorism legislation in the UK between those dates with an Islamist connection.
Structure and projects
The Society has produced a breadth of research reports and papers. These have mostly focused on Islamist extremist activity in the UK, crackdowns on human rights and democracy elsewhere, and various facets of foreign policy and defence.Its current workstreams include:
- Asia Studies Centre. This Centre seeks to provide "an in-depth understanding of the structural shifts, regional complexities and historic tensions that exist alongside the tremendous economic and social growth that traditionally characterise the 'rise of Asia'."Publications include a paper on the possible outcomes of the negotiations with North Korea,and the need to safeguard critical national infrastructure in the West from vulnerabilities which may be built in by China.
- Global Britain Programme. Focuses on "the need for an open, confident and expansive British geostrategic policy in the twenty-first century – drawing on the United Kingdom’s unique strengths not only as an advocate for liberalism and national democracy, but also as a custodian of both the European and international orders." This centre has published papers on what the European Union 'owes' the United Kingdom, as well as advocated for increased military spending by NATO members.
- Russia & Eurasia Studies Centre. Researches domestic and foreign policy issues in Russia and the former Soviet states. In 2018 the Conservative) MP Bob Seely published a paper through this Centre which sought to define 'Contemporary Russian Conflict', and in which he accused the government of Vladimir Putin of pursuing KGB-style tactics.
- Centre for the New Middle East. Established following the Arab Spring, the Society describes this Centre as "dedicated to monitoring political, ideological, and military and security developments across the Middle East and providing informed assessments of their wide-ranging implications". The Centre has released reports highly critical of Iran.
- Centre on Radicalisation & Terrorism. Focuses on the threat to the United Kingdom and elsewhere by Islamist terrorism. Reports have ranged from analyses of the UK charitable sector to the way in which criminals utilise the darknet.
- Student Rights. Created in 2009 "as a reaction to increasing political extremism and marginalisation of vulnerable students on campus". This project has tracked what it describes as "extreme" speakers on British university campuses.
In September 2018, the Society announced the creation of a new Centre for Social and Political Risk
. This Centre will "identify, diagnose and propose solutions to threats to governance in liberal Western democracies", focusing on social cohesion and integration; freedom of speech and political correctness; demographic change; and other issues.
The think tank has been described by the media as having right-wing
leanings, though it positions itself as non-partisan.In 2014, Nafeez Ahmed
, an executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development, said that the Henry Jackson Society courts corporate, political power to advance a distinctly illiberal oil and gas agenda in the Middle East
In 2009 the society became the secretariat of two all-party parliamentary groups
(APPGs), for Transatlantic and International Security, chaired by Gisela Stuart
, and for Homeland Security, chaired by Bernard Jenkin
. A transparency requirement upon non-profit organisations acting as secretariat at that time was that they must reveal, on request, any corporate donors who gave £5,000 or more to the organisation over the past year or cease acting as a secretariat organisation. In 2014, following a query, the society refused to disclose this information and resigned its position as secretariat of the APPGs concerned in order to comply with the Rules. The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards
, Kathryn Hudson
, upheld a complaint against these APPGs on the grounds data had not been provided, but noted the society had already resigned its position and that the consequence of this non-provision therefore "appears to have taken effect" as the Rules intended. The case was therefore closed with no further action taken and the APPGs themselves dissolved with the dissolution of Parliament in March 2015. The APPG Rules were subsequently changed in March 2015 so that only those non-profit organisations providing services to APPGs of more than £12,500 in value needed to declare their corporate donors.
In July 2014 the Henry Jackson Society was sued by Lady de Rothschild
over funds of a "caring capitalism" summit. Lady de Rothschild claims that she has financed the summit and that HJS and its executive director Alan Mendoza are holding £137,000 of “surplus funds” from the conference that should be returned to the couple’s investment company EL Rothschild.
Think tank discussions on the Middle East
have led some media organisations to criticise a perceived anti-Muslim agenda. Marko Attila Hoare, a former senior member, cited related reasons for leaving the think tank and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy was urged, in 2015, to sever his links with the society.
According to the report published in 2015, "a right-wing politics is apparent not only in the ideas that the Henry Jackson Society promotes, but also emerges distinctly on examination of its funders."
In 2017, the Henry Jackson Society was accused of running an anti-China propaganda campaign after the Japanese embassy gave them a monthly fee of 10,000 pounds.The campaign was said to be aimed at planting Japan's concerns about China
in British newspapers.
Co-founder Matthew Jamison wrote in 2017 that he was ashamed of his involvement, having never imagined the Henry Jackson Society "would become a far-right, deeply anti-Muslim racist [...] propaganda outfit to smear other cultures, religions and ethnic groups." "The HJS for many years has relentlessly demonised Muslims and Islam."
In January 2019, Nikita Malik of the Henry Jackson Society provided The Daily Telegraph
with information they claimed showed a Muslim scout leader was linked to Islamic extremists and Holocaust deniers.In January 2020 The Daily Telegraph
issued a retraction and formal apology saying that:
"the articles said that Ahammed Hussain had links to extremist Muslim Groups that promoted terrorism and anti-Semitism, and could have suggested that he supported those views and encouraged their dissemination. We now accept that this was wrong and that Mr Hussain has never supported or promoted terrorism, or been anti-Semitic.We acted in good faith on information received but we now accept that the article is defamatory of Mr Hussain and false, and apologise for the distress caused to him in publishing it. We have agreed to pay him damages and costs."
The initial signatories of the statement of principles included:
- Members of Parliament Michael Ancram, Michael Gove, Edward Vaizey, David Willetts, Denis MacShane, Fabian Hamilton, Gisela Stuart,
- former MPs David Trimble, Jackie Lawrence), Greg Pope,
- former soldier Tim Collins),
- Sir Richard Dearlove – former head of the British Secret Intelligence Service, and formerly Master of Pembroke College, Cambridge – and the American economist Irwin Stelzer.
- Times Journalist Oliver Kamm
International patrons included Richard Perle
, William Kristol
, former CIA Director R. James Woolsey Jr.
, and former Lithuanian leader Vytautas Landsbergis
This has been a rabbit hole and only half the story regarding Lady Forester. Then only link between Lady Forester and Jeffrey Epstein is In 1995, financier Lynn Forester
discussed "Jeffrey Epstein and currency stabilization" with Clinton. Epstein, according to his own accounts, was heavily involved in the foreign exchange market
and traded large amounts of currency in the unregulated forex market
. I will post another story Lady Forester and the coalition for Inclusive Capitalism.
References https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Jackson_Society https://henryjacksonsociety.org/who-was-henry-jackson/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_M._Jackson
What factors predict the success of a Steam game?
I've seen quite a few discussions, comments and questions on /gamedev
about what determines a game's success. How much does quality matter? Is establishing market awareness before launch the only thing that matters? Does a demo help or hurt? If your game has a poor launch, how likely is it to recover? Is it possible to roughly predict the sales of a game before launch?
In preparation for my game's launch
, I spent a lot of time monitoring upcoming releases trying to find the answer to these questions. I compiled a spreadsheet, noted followers, whether it was Early Access or not, and saw how many reviews it received in the first week, month and quarter.
I'm sharing this data now in the hopes that it helps other developers understand and predict their games' sales.
First some notes on the data:
- One of the important sources of data are the number Steam reviews. There is good evidence that these correlate strongly with copies sold, with frequently cited ratios of 50 sales per Steam review, but there's a wide range. It seems likely that the majority of Steam games fall between 25 and 120 sales per Steam review, but there are outliers. Also, games with a very small number of reviews are much more likely to be outliers in this respect. My own game is the only game I have hard sales numbers for. You can read my lengthy Reddit post on its release, but the relevant numbers are that it sold 1587 copies in the first week and 3580 copies in its first quarter.
- The total number of games in the sample was 115.
- I selected games semi-randomly from from both Popular Upcoming and All Upcoming. This favors the popular upcoming tab somewhat and this was deliberate: I wanted a diverse sample but also one not completely dominated with titles that sold zero copies.
- Games are ordered by their release date which range from 10/26/18 to 12/20/18.
|Game ||Price ||Launch Discount ||Week Guess ||Week actual ||3 Month ||3 Month/week ||Followers ||Early Access ||Demo ||Review Score |
|Pit of Doom ||9.99 ||0 ||7 ||27 ||43 ||1.592592593 ||295 ||Y ||N ||0.8 |
|Citrouille ||9.99 ||0.2 ||16 ||8 ||12 ||1.5 ||226 ||N ||N || |
|Corspe Party: Book ||14.99 ||0.1 ||32 ||40 ||79 ||1.975 ||1015 ||N ||N ||0.95 |
|Call of Cthulhu ||44.99 ||0 ||800 ||875 ||1595 ||1.822857143 ||26600 ||N ||N ||0.74 |
|On Space ||0.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||0 ||0 || ||4 ||N ||N || |
|Orphan ||14.99 ||0 ||50 ||0 ||8 || ||732 ||N ||N || |
|Black Bird ||19.99 ||0 ||20 ||13 ||34 ||2.615384615 ||227 ||N ||N || |
|Gloom ||6.99 ||0 ||20 ||8 ||17 ||2.125 ||159 ||N ||N || |
|Gilded Rails ||5.99 ||0.35 ||2 ||3 ||7 ||2.333333333 ||11 ||N ||Y || |
|The Quiet Man ||14.99 ||0.1 ||120 ||207 ||296 ||1.429951691 ||5596 ||N ||N ||0.31 |
|KartKraft ||19.99 ||0.1 ||150 ||90 ||223 ||2.477777778 ||7691 ||Y ||N ||0.84 |
|The Other Half ||7.99 ||0 ||2 ||3 ||27 ||9 ||91 ||N ||Y ||0.86 |
|Parabolus ||14.99 ||0.15 ||0 ||0 ||0 || ||16 ||N ||Y || |
|Yet Another Tower Defense ||1.99 ||0.4 ||20 ||22 ||38 ||1.727272727 ||396 ||N ||N ||0.65 |
|Galaxy Squad ||9.99 ||0.25 || ||8 ||42 ||5.25 ||3741 ||Y ||N ||0.87 |
|Swords and Soldiers 2 ||14.99 ||0.1 ||65 ||36 ||63 ||1.75 ||1742 ||N ||N ||0.84 |
|SpitKiss ||2.99 ||0 ||3 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||63 ||N ||N || |
|Holy Potatoes ||14.99 ||0 ||24 ||11 ||22 ||2 ||617 ||N ||N ||0.7 |
|Kursk ||29.99 ||0.15 ||90 ||62 ||98 ||1.580645161 ||2394 ||N ||N ||0.57 |
|SimpleRockets 2 ||14.99 ||0.15 ||90 ||142 ||272 ||1.915492958 ||3441 ||Y ||N ||0.85 |
|Egress ||14.99 ||0.15 ||160 ||44 ||75 ||1.704545455 ||7304 ||Y ||N ||0.67 |
|Kynseed ||9.99 ||0 ||600 ||128 ||237 ||1.8515625 ||12984 ||Y ||N ||0.86 |
|11-11 Memories ||29.99 ||0 ||30 ||10 ||69 ||6.9 ||767 ||N ||N ||0.96 |
|Rage in Peace ||12.99 ||0.1 ||15 ||10 ||42 ||4.2 ||377 ||N ||N ||0.85 |
|One Hour One Life ||19.99 ||0 ||12 ||153 ||708 ||4.62745098 ||573 ||N ||N ||0.81 |
|Optica ||9.99 ||0 ||0 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||18 ||N ||N || |
|Cybarian ||5.99 ||0.15 ||8 ||4 ||18 ||4.5 ||225 ||N ||N || |
|Zeon 25 ||3.99 ||0.3 ||3 ||11 ||12 ||1.090909091 ||82 ||Y ||N || |
|Of Gods and Men ||7.99 ||0.4 ||3 ||10 ||18 ||1.8 ||111 ||N ||Y || |
|Welcome to Princeland ||4.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||15 ||55 ||3.666666667 ||30 ||N ||N ||0.85 |
|Zero Caliber VR ||24.99 ||0.1 ||100 ||169 ||420 ||2.485207101 ||5569 ||Y ||N ||0.73 |
|HellSign ||14.99 ||0 ||100 ||131 ||334 ||2.549618321 ||3360 ||Y ||N ||0.85 |
|Thief Simulator ||19.99 ||0.15 ||400 ||622 ||1867 ||3.001607717 ||10670 ||N ||N ||0.81 |
|Last Stanza ||7.99 ||0.1 ||8 ||2 ||4 ||2 ||228 ||N ||Y || |
|Evil Bank Manager ||11.99 ||0.1 || ||106 ||460 ||4.339622642 ||8147 ||Y ||N ||0.78 |
|Oppai Puzzle ||0.99 ||0.3 || ||36 ||93 ||2.583333333 ||54 ||N ||N ||0.92 |
|Hexen Hegemony ||9.99 ||0.15 ||3 ||1 ||5 ||5 ||55 ||Y ||N || |
|Blokin ||2.99 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||10 ||N ||N || |
|Light Fairytale Ep 1 ||9.99 ||0.1 ||80 ||23 ||54 ||2.347826087 ||4694 ||Y ||N ||0.89 |
|The Last Sphinx ||2.99 ||0.1 ||0 ||0 ||1 ||0 ||17 ||N ||N || |
|Glassteroids ||9.99 ||0.2 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||5 ||Y ||N || |
|Hitman 2 ||59.99 ||0 ||2000 ||2653 ||3677 ||1.385978138 ||52226 ||N ||N ||0.88 |
|Golf Peaks ||4.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||8 ||25 ||3.125 ||46 ||N ||N ||1 |
|Sipho ||13.99 ||0 ||24 ||5 ||14 ||2.8 ||665 ||Y ||N || |
|Distraint 2 ||8.99 ||0.1 ||40 ||104 ||321 ||3.086538462 ||1799 ||N ||N ||0.97 |
|Healing Harem ||12.99 ||0.1 ||24 ||10 ||15 ||1.5 ||605 ||N ||N || |
|Spark Five ||2.99 ||0.3 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||7 ||N ||N || |
|Bad Dream: Fever ||9.99 ||0.2 ||30 ||78 ||134 ||1.717948718 ||907 ||N ||N ||0.72 |
|Underworld Ascendant ||29.99 ||0.15 ||200 ||216 ||288 ||1.333333333 ||8870 ||N ||N ||0.34 |
|Reentry ||19.99 ||0.15 ||8 ||24 ||78 ||3.25 ||202 ||Y ||N ||0.95 |
|Zvezda ||5.99 ||0 ||2 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||25 ||Y ||Y || |
|Space Gladiator ||2.99 ||0 ||0 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||5 ||N ||N || |
|Bad North ||14.99 ||0.1 ||500 ||360 ||739 ||2.052777778 ||15908 ||N ||N ||0.8 |
|Sanctus Mortem ||9.99 ||0.15 ||3 ||3 ||3 ||1 ||84 ||N ||Y || |
|The Occluder ||1.99 ||0.2 ||1 ||1 ||1 ||1 ||13 ||N ||N || |
|Dark Fantasy: Jigsaw ||2.99 ||0.2 ||1 ||9 ||36 ||4 ||32 ||N ||N ||0.91 |
|Farming Simulator 19 ||34.99 ||0 ||1500 ||3895 ||5759 ||1.478562259 ||37478 ||N ||N ||0.76 |
|Don't Forget Our Esports Dream ||14.99 ||0.13 ||3 ||16 ||22 ||1.375 ||150 ||N ||N ||1 |
|Space Toads Mayhem ||3.99 ||0.15 ||1 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||18 ||N ||N || |
|Cattle Call ||11.99 ||0.1 ||10 ||19 ||53 ||2.789473684 ||250 ||Y ||N ||0.71 |
|Ralf ||9.99 ||0.2 ||0 ||0 ||2 ||0 ||6 ||N ||N || |
|Elite Archery ||0.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||5 ||Y ||N || |
|Evidence of Life ||4.99 ||0 ||0 ||2 ||4 ||2 ||10 ||N ||N || |
|Trinity VR ||4.99 ||0 ||2 ||8 ||15 ||1.875 ||61 ||N ||N || |
|Quiet as a Stone ||9.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||1 ||4 ||4 ||42 ||N ||N || |
|Overdungeon ||14.99 ||0 ||3 ||86 ||572 ||6.651162791 ||77 ||Y ||N ||0.91 |
|Protocol ||24.99 ||0.15 ||60 ||41 ||117 ||2.853658537 ||1764 ||N ||N ||0.68 |
|Scraper: First Strike ||29.99 ||0 ||3 ||3 ||15 ||5 ||69 ||N ||N || |
|Experiment Gone Rogue ||16.99 ||0 ||1 ||1 ||5 ||5 ||27 ||Y ||N || |
|Emerald Shores ||9.99 ||0.2 ||0 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||12 ||N ||N || |
|Age of Civilizations II ||4.99 ||0 ||600 ||1109 ||2733 ||2.464382326 ||18568 ||N ||N ||0.82 |
|Dereliction ||4.99 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||#DIV/0! ||18 ||N ||N || |
|Poopy Philosophy ||0.99 ||0 ||0 ||6 ||10 ||1.666666667 ||6 ||N ||N || |
|NOCE ||17.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||3 ||4 ||1.333333333 ||35 ||N ||N || |
|Qu-tros ||2.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||3 ||7 ||2.333333333 ||4 ||N ||N || |
|Mosaics Galore. Challenging Journey ||4.99 ||0.2 ||1 ||1 ||8 ||8 ||14 ||N ||N || |
|Zquirrels Jump ||2.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||1 ||4 ||4 ||9 ||N ||N || |
|Dark Siders III ||59.99 ||0 ||2400 ||1721 ||2708 ||1.573503777 ||85498 ||N ||N ||0.67 |
|R-Type Dimensions Ex ||14.99 ||0.2 ||10 ||48 ||64 ||1.333333333 ||278 ||N ||N ||0.92 |
|Artifact ||19.99 ||0 ||7000 ||9700 ||16584 ||1.709690722 ||140000 ||N ||N ||0.53 |
|Crimson Keep ||14.99 ||0.15 ||20 ||5 ||6 ||1.2 ||367 ||N ||N || |
|Rival Megagun ||14.99 ||0 ||35 ||26 ||31 ||1.192307692 ||818 ||N ||N || |
|Santa's Workshop ||1.99 ||0.1 ||3 ||1 ||1 ||1 ||8 ||N ||N || |
|Hentai Shadow ||1.99 ||0.3 || ||2 ||12 ||6 ||14 ||N ||N || |
|Ricky Runner ||12.99 ||0.3 ||3 ||6 ||13 ||2.166666667 ||66 ||Y ||N ||0.87 |
|Pro Fishing Simulator ||39.99 ||0.15 ||24 ||20 ||19 ||0.95 ||609 ||N ||N ||0.22 |
|Broken Reality ||14.99 ||0.1 ||60 ||58 ||138 ||2.379310345 ||1313 ||N ||Y ||0.98 |
|Rapture Rejects ||19.99 ||0 ||200 ||82 ||151 ||1.841463415 ||9250 ||Y ||N ||0.64 |
|Lost Cave ||19.99 ||0 ||3 ||8 ||11 ||1.375 ||43 ||Y ||N || |
|Epic Battle Fantasy 5 ||14.99 ||0 ||300 ||395 ||896 ||2.26835443 ||4236 ||N ||N ||0.97 |
|Ride 3 ||49.99 ||0 ||75 ||161 ||371 ||2.304347826 ||1951 ||N ||N ||0.74 |
|Escape Doodland ||9.99 ||0.2 ||25 ||16 ||19 ||1.1875 ||1542 ||N ||N || |
|Hillbilly Apocalypse ||5.99 ||0.1 ||0 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||8 ||N ||N || |
|X4 ||49.99 ||0 ||1500 ||2638 ||4303 ||1.63115997 ||38152 ||N ||N ||0.7 |
|Splotches ||9.99 ||0.15 ||0 ||2 ||1 ||0.5 ||10 ||N ||N || |
|Above the Fold ||13.99 ||0.15 ||5 ||2 ||6 ||3 ||65 ||Y ||N || |
|The Seven Chambers ||12.99 ||0.3 ||3 ||0 ||0 ||#DIV/0! ||55 ||N ||N || |
|Terminal Conflict ||29.99 ||0 ||5 ||4 ||11 ||2.75 ||125 ||Y ||N || |
|Just Cause 4 ||59.99 ||0 ||2400 ||2083 ||3500 ||1.680268843 ||50000 ||N ||N ||0.34 |
|Grapple Force Rena ||14.99 ||0 ||11 ||12 ||29 ||2.416666667 ||321 ||N ||Y || |
|Beholder 2 ||14.99 ||0.1 || ||479 ||950 ||1.983298539 ||16000 ||N ||N ||0.84 |
|Blueprint Word ||1.99 ||0 || ||12 ||15 ||1.25 ||244 ||N ||Y || |
|Aeon of Sands ||19.99 ||0.1 ||20 ||12 ||25 ||2.083333333 ||320 ||N ||N || |
|Oakwood ||4.99 ||0.1 || ||32 ||68 ||2.125 ||70 ||N ||N ||0.82 |
|Endhall ||4.99 ||0 ||4 ||22 ||42 ||1.909090909 ||79 ||N ||N ||0.84 |
|Dr. Cares - Family Practice ||12.99 ||0.25 ||6 ||3 ||8 ||2.666666667 ||39 ||N ||N || |
|Treasure Hunter ||16.99 ||0.15 ||200 ||196 ||252 ||1.285714286 ||4835 ||N ||N ||0.6 |
|Forex Trading ||1.99 ||0.4 ||7 ||10 ||14 ||1.4 ||209 ||N ||N || |
|Ancient Frontier ||14.99 ||0 ||24 ||5 ||16 ||3.2 ||389 ||N ||N || |
|Fear the Night ||14.99 ||0.25 ||25 ||201 ||440 ||2.189054726 ||835 ||Y ||N ||0.65 |
|Subterraneus ||12.99 ||0.1 ||4 ||0 ||3 ||#DIV/0! ||82 ||N ||N || |
|Starcom: Nexus ||14.99 ||0.15 || ||53 ||119 ||2.245283019 ||1140 ||Y ||N ||0.93 |
|Subject 264 ||14.99 ||0.2 ||25 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||800 ||N ||N || |
|Gris ||16.9 ||0 ||100 ||1484 ||4650 ||3.133423181 ||5779 ||N ||N ||0.96 |
|Exiled to the Void ||7.99 ||0.3 ||9 ||4 ||11 ||2.75 ||84 ||Y ||N || |
For the columns that are not self-explanatory:
- Launch Discount: Percent first week discount, 0.25 = 25% off
- Week Guess: This is my guess, made before the game launched as to how many Steam purchaser reviews it would have after exactly one week.
- Week Actual: The number of reviews that the game had after 1 week.
- 3 Month: The number of reviews that the game had after 3 months.
- Followers: The number of group followers the game had prior to launch. In some cases this recorded just before launch, in some cases up to a week before.
- Review score: The percent favorable score on Steam at the one month mark. Games needed a minimum of 20 reviews to be counted.
Question 1: Does Quality Predict Success?
There was a recent blog post stating that the #1 metric for indie games' success is how good it is.
Quality is obviously a subjective metric. The most obvious objective measure of quality for Steam games is their % Favorable Review score. This is the percentage of reviews by purchasers of the game that gave the game a positive rating. I excluded any game that did not have at least 20 user reviews in the first month, which limited the sample size to 56.
The (Pearson) correlation of a game's review score to its number of reviews three months after its release was -0.2. But 0.2 (plus or minus) isn't a very strong correlation at all. More importantly, Pearson correlation can be swayed if the data contains some big outliers. Looking at the actual games, we can see that the difference is an artifact of an outlier. Literally. Valve's Artifact by far had the most reviews after three months and had one of the lowest review scores (53% at the time). Removing this game from the data changed the correlation to essentially zero.
Spearman's Rho, an alternative correlation model that correlates rank position and minimizes the effect of huge outliers produced a similar result. Conclusion: If there is correlation between a game's quality (as measured by Steam review score) and first quarter sales (as measured by total review count), it is too subtle to be detected in this data.
Question 2: Do Demos, Early Access or Launch Discounts Affect Success/Failure?
Unfortunately, there were so few games that had demos prior to release (10) that only a very strong correlation would really tell us anything. As it happens, there was no meaningful correlation one way or another.
There were more Early Access titles (28), but again the correlation was too small to be meaningful.
More than half the titles had a launch week discount and there was actually a moderate negative correlation of -0.3 between having a launch discount and first week review count. However it appears that this is primarily the result of the tendency of AAA titles (which sell the most copies) to not do launch discounts. Removing the titles that likely grossed over a $1 million in the first week reduced the correlation to basically zero. Conclusion: Insufficient data. No clear correlation between demos, Early Access or launch discount and review counts: if they help or hurt the effect is not consistent enough to be seen here.
Question 3: Does pre-launch awareness (i.e., Steam followers) predict success?
You can see the number of "followers" for any game on Steam by searching for its automatically-created Community Group
. Prior to launch, this is a good rough indicator of market awareness.
The correlation between group followers shortly before launch and review count at 3 months was 0.89. That's a very strong positive correlation. The rank correlation was also high (0.85) suggesting that this wasn't the result of a few highly anticipated games.
Save for a single outlier (discussed later), the ratio of 3 month review counts to pre-launch followers ranged from 0 (for the handful of games that never received any reviews) to 1.8, with a median value of 0.1. If you have 1000 followers just prior to launch, then at the end of the first quarter you should expect "about" 100 reviews.
One thing I noticed was that there were a few games that had follower counts that seemed too high compared to secondary indicators of market awareness, such as discussion forum threads and Twitter engagement. After some investigation I came to the conclusion that pre-launch key activations are treated as followers by Steam. If a game gave away a lot of Steam keys before launch (say as Kickstarter rewards or part of beta testing) this would cause the game to appear to have more followers than it had gained "organically." Conclusion: Organic followers prior to launch are a strong predictor of a game's eventual success.
Question 4: What about price?
The correlation between price and review count at 3 month is 0.36, which is moderate correlation. I'm not sure how useful that data point is: it is somewhat obvious that higher budget games have larger marketing budgets.
There is a correlation between price and review score of -0.41. It seems likely that players do factor price into their reviews and a game priced at $60 has a higher bar to clear to earn a thumbs up review than a game priced at $10.
Question 5: Do first week sales predict first quarter results?
The correlation between number of reviews after 1 week and number of reviews after 3 months was 0.99. The Spearman correlation was 0.97. This is the highest correlation I found in the data.
Excluding games that sold very few copies (fewer than 5 reviews after the first week), most games had around twice as many reviews after 3 months as they did after 1 week. This suggests that games sell about as many copies in their first week as they do in the next 12 weeks combined. The vast majority of games had a tail ratio (ratio of reviews at 3 months to 1 week) of between 1.3 to 3.2.
I have seen a number of questions from developers whose game had a poor launch on Steam and wanted to know what they can do to improve sales. While I'm certain post-launch marketing can have an effect on continuing sales, your first week does seem to set hard bounds on your results. Conclusion: ALL SIGNS POINT TO YES
Question 6: Does Quality Help with a Game's "Tail"?
As discussed in the last question while first week sales are very strongly correlated with first quarter, there's still quite a wide range of ratios. Defining a game's Tail Ratio
as the ratio of reviews after 3 months to after 1 week, the lowest value was 0.95 for "Pro Fishing Simulator" which actually managed to lose 1 review. The highest ratio was 6.9, an extreme outlier that I'll talk about later. It is perhaps not a coincidence that the worst tail had a Steam score of 22% and the best tail had a Steam score of 96%.
The overall correlation between the Tail Ratio and Steam score was 0.42. Conclusion: Even though there is no clear correlation between quality and overall review count/sales, there is a moderate correlation between a game's review score and its tail. This suggests that "good games" do better in the long run than "bad games," but the effect is small compared to the more important factor of pre-launch awareness.
Question 7: Is it possible to predict a game's success before launch without knowing its wishlists?
While I was compiling the data for each game, sometime prior to its scheduled launch date, I would make a prediction of how many reviews I thought it would receive in its first week and add that prediction to the spreadsheet.
The #1 factor I used in making my prediction was group follower count. In some cases I would adjust my prediction if I thought that value was off, using secondary sources such as Steam forum activity and Twitter engagement.
The correlation between my guess and the actual value was 0.96, which is a very strong correlation. As you can see in the data, the predictions are, for the most part, in the right ballpack with a few cases where I was way off.
Based on my experience, multiplying the group follower count by 0.1 will, in most cases, give you a ballpark sense of the first
quarter review count. If a game doesn't have at least one question in the discussion forum for every 100 followers, that may indicate that there are large number of "inorganic" followers and you may need to adjust your estimate. Conclusion: Yes, with a few exceptions, using follower data and other indicators you can predict first week results approximately. Given the strong correlation between first week and quarter sales, it should also be possible to have a ballpark idea of first quarter results before launch.
Final Question: What about the outliers you mentioned?
There were a few games in the data that stood out significantly in one way or another.
Outlier #1: Overdungeon. This game had 77 group followers shortly before launch, a fairly small number and based solely on that number I would have expected fewer than a dozen reviews in the first week. It ended up with 86. Not only that, it had a strong tail and finished its first quarter with 572 reviews. This was by a wide margin the highest review count to follower ratio in the sample.
Based on the reviews, it appears to basically be Slay the Spire, but huge in Asia. 90% of the reviews seem to be in Japanese or Chinese. If anyone has some insight to this game's unusual apparent success, I'm very curious.
This seems to be the only clear example in the data of a game with minimal following prior to launch going on to having a solid first quarter.
Outlier #2: 11-11 Memories Retold. This game had 767 group followers shortly before launch, ten times as many as Overdungeon. That's still not a large number for even a small indie title. It had a fair amount going for it, though: it was directed by Yoan Fanise, who co-directed the critally acclaimed Valiant Hearts, a game with a similar theme. It was animated by Aardman Studios of "Wallace and Gromit" fame. Its publisher was Bandai Namco Europe, a not inexperienced publisher. The voice acting was by Sebastian Koch and Elijah Wood. It has dozens of good reviews in both gaming and traditional press. It currently has a 95% positive review rating on Steam.
Despite all that, nobody bought it. 24 hours after it came out it had literally zero reviews on Steam. One week after it came out it had just 10. Three months later it had demonstrated the largest tail in the data, but even then it had only climbed to 69 reviews. Now it's at about 100, an incredible tail ratio, but almost certainly a commercial failure.
This is a solid example that good game + good production values does necessarily equal good sales.
The big take-aways from this analysis are:
- The success of a game on Steam very strongly depends on its first week performance
- A game's first week performance is strongly correlated with its pre-launch market awareness
- Quality does not seem to strongly impact first week performance, but may have some positive effect on a game's "tail"
- All inferences regarding sales are dependent on the relationship between review counts and sales
Thanks for reading!
Analysis paralysis according to Wikipedia is the state of over analyzing (or overthinking) a situation so that a decision or action is never taken, in effect paralyzing the outcome. submitted by
Have you ever being in of those scenarios where you see what you believe initially to be a perfectly good trade setup, however as you continue to analyse and study the situation you begin to feel less and less confident about the trade and you are not sure why this happened. I know most traders would have encountered this scenario at some point in their trading journey because I myself have also experienced it.
This is a common scenario for traders and it occurs mostly when the trader has too much congestion in their thinking. With this highly congested thinking which happens as a result of too many detailed options, it leads to the outcome of a choice not being made. Analysis paralysis can happen in trading when the trader is afraid of making any decision that could to lead to a bad trade.
Most traders often over analyse themselves right out of a quality trade setup, and it can be very much problematic, in the sense that it can have severe negative consequences on the traders performance and the traders psychology. Over analysis can also cause a trader to jump out of a perfectly good trade they have already executed. The purpose of this article is to figure out the ways analysis paralysis negatively impacts trading and its solutions.
Too many external influences Have you ever been in a scenario when you woke up in the morning, get yourself ready, turn on your laptop, pull up your trading platform, go through it and spot a very good setup, a setup that defines your edge then you decide to pull up cnbc, Bloomberg etc or you decide to ask your friend. After all you have read and hearing your friends opinion about that setup you realize your mindset has been turned against the setup you were so confident about before you decided to listen to other opinions, then you shut your laptop only for you to turn it back on later to see that the setup is playing out exactly as you initially anticipated it to.
Solution: Making a decision to ignore external influences
The key to ignoring external influences such as the ones discussed above is to be a lone soldier in this psychological battlefield called the forex market. This is something every trader must do because their survival and tendency to arrive at a consistent and successful trading journey depends on it. For this lone ranger status to be attained the trader needs to simply gain the understanding and knowledge that these external influences are only there to hurt them. Once the trader fully believes and accepts this, such trader will no longer care about them and instead focus more on mastering their trading method.
Thinking yourself out of a good trade Most traders including me have been a victim of this scenario when you find a perfectly good setup that meets your edge in the market and instead of pulling the trigger and executing the trade you are just sited in front of your chart paralyzed as a result of over analyzing, and over thinking, looking around at different variables until you convince yourself the trade setup would not work.
Solution: Don’t think so hard about it
This aspect is a little bit complicated because there a lot of reasons traders think themselves out of perfectly good trading setups but the main two are fear and uncertainty. For a trader to become consistent and successful such trader needs to stop being afraid of losing money and the best way to overcome this fear is to accept it. Having it in mind that even the best traders in the world do have losing trades. having this in mind will help you eliminate the fear of losses. Also have it in mind that every trade is just another execution of your trading edge, don’t think too hard when you see a signal that meets your edge instead just pull the trigger by executing the trade and walking away.
Having a clustered chart Analysis paralysis would definitely creep in when it discovers a trader has a clustered chart, when I say a clustered chart I mean when a traders chart is crowded with different indicators like moving averages, stochastic, Bollinger bands etc I am not saying indicators are not good because I myself use a few of them but what I’m saying is that some traders chart can look messy because they have many different indicators on their chart and with trying to analyse all the numerous indicators all at the same would lead to analysis paralysis.
Solution: Decluster your chart
This one is very much straight forward, all the trader needs to do is to decluster their chart by removing all the conflicting indicators from their chart and adopt a straight forward, less conflicting trading method like price action trading.
Not having an edge Analysis paralysis can also creep in when a trader doesn’t have an edge in the market. When a trader doesn’t know what to look out for before pulling the trigger, such trader can be presented with a perfectly good setup and still won’t do anything.
Solution: Get an edge
All a trader in this situation needs to do is to research a trading method that suites his/her own personality, master it, and use it as their own edge in the market
Too little confidence in your ability as a trader Any trader who isn’t confident in their ability to trade would definitely attract analysis paralysis because such trader would always second guess themselves. As a trader you need to be decisive to make money.
Solution: Get proper training and quality screen time
The best solutions to low self confidence when it comes to forex trading are education and quality screen time. So any trader that finds themselves in this situation should get proper education on forex trading and after obtaining education and mastering a trading strategy the trader should simply get quality screen time by practicing their trading system on a demo account or on a live account with small funds, this would do a good job by boosting their confidence as traders.
In conclusion, even the best traders in the world at some point in their lives went through analysis paralysis scenarios. Scenarios where they have over thought and over analysed themselves out of quality setups but at the end of the day they still turned out good. So if you are having this issue carefully read the solutions and set out on your journey of departing from the island of analysis paralysis.
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